Adviser's Note - Whose Math Has Gone Wrong?

Adviser's Note - Whose Math Has Gone Wrong?

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Girijesh Pant

The Brent crude at $34.54 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $31.83 a barrel, are not the numbers to please Riyadh, Moscow and the Washington. Ironically before they could correct their math, Corona messed their calculations by pushing the global economy on way to recession. To make the matter worse, we are told to learn to live with virus, meaning the new normal of economy is going to be energy rationalization-- no travelling, work from home and the webinars. The prospects of demand recovery to ensure revenue to MBS and Putin to meet their budgetary demand are bleak, to put mildly. Disillusioned with Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC + is not likely to listen to them for another cut in production, pushed to the wall they might decide to opt out. To further complicate the energy embroilment, the competitive rise of renewables backed by new technology, is making clear in no uncertain terms that energy is a serious business to be taken on the ego trip. The take away for political class is that the personalized view of global transactions, be energy or pandemic could prove to be disaster.

Prof. Girijesh Pant is a National Fellow at the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR). Formerly, he was Dean of the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi